By left wing standards Shermans march to the sea would be called a war crime, but the same people who attack Israel would never say that. War is terrible but when it is waged must be won. The same who scream ceasefire were filled with glee over mass rape and executions. Harden your hearts without becoming monsters and win.
Joe Biden is no Lincoln and try spotting Gen Sherman in Washington DC.
The US has squandered the lives of military forces in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam along with billions of dollars in equipment. We have fought wars without objectives; without adaptation to nonconventional warfare; and with rules of engagement that put military units at risk.
The strategy needs to be more than just bomb Iran and eliminate Hamas. It is also occupation for years to come. Would there ever be acceptance of the US as an occupying force like there is with US occupation along the border of South Korea?
The author's analogy of a chess game is appropriate, because it is a thoughtful and anticipates the many moves of the enemy. US foreign policy is currently designed for checkers.
US foreign policy doesn't have a design. It is an ad hoc hodge-podge of neo-Marxist concepts that can never recognize the real task confronting our nation.
Jake Sullivan is an acolyte of Barack Obama and Ben Rhodes who sees the United States as yesterday's leader. They have, with the help of Biden and folk like four-star general Mark Malley have stripped our military of its potency and has left us in a position of begging our allies to actually be allies.
It will take decades and untold billions to get us back to the force strength we had at the end of the Trump administration, let alone the strength we had before Obama took office.
We are in a perfect storm of incompetent leadership, the the point where there is serious doubt as whether leadership actually supports the concept of American security.
First: American security begins at our borders. Leadership under Biden has proven without a doubt that there is no concern or concept of securing America.
Second: The struggles for important parts to support military equipment was also a struggle under Trump. Most infamously, when aircraft parts were requested from the Smithsonian.
No, it wouldn't, because the Left determines a permanent, immutable moral high ground using subjective, selective application of "intersectionality" criteria. It would have decided that Sherman was fighting for the good guys, just like Hamas, and the same moral cover that applied to Hamas's terrorism would apply to Sherman.
Regardless, the galling evil that is Leftism must be fought much more aggressively than it has been to this point.
The authors are correct, Israel is fighting its last war against Hamas whether the world likes it or not. It has no choice but to fight and win. If Israel is gone, our enemies will be completely convinced that the US is a shell of its former self. The Hezbollah and Hamas terrorists in the West will attack and the US will lose the will to defend Taiwan and deter China. This has been in the making, with intention, since Obama was elected. May God help Israel do what it must. May Israel embolden the US to do what it must with Iran. To not act is to die a little more slowly and torturously. The Democrats are responsible for creating this quagmire and they lack the will to act responsibly.
If BS is suggesting the existential end to the State of Israel, he/ she hasn’t consulted with the Jewish people. This isn’t 3 years post WW II with a ragtag army of Holocaust survivors winning a miraculous war of Independence in 1948. When 100,000 reservists were called up 2 weeks ago, who were either visiting or residing overseas, 150,000 showed up. This is more likely (God forbid) ending in a nuclear response from Israel than any sort of capitulation and evacuation. Submarines operating within 3 minutes flight time from Tehran are not asleep.
Everybody calm down. Israel may have a fight on its hands, but hardly one it's close to losing. It's a long way from a momentary lapse of discipline and training on a border to ceasing to exist. Israel has more people and a 10x GDP per cap advantage over Palestine, and recent events don't change where this is all headed - a strong Israel with more control, not less.
Make no mistake about it; the American left considers Sherman one of the greatest evils of all time. Only Lincoln and Grant are worse. Those three permanently ended the institution of slavery and the American left will never forgive them for that.
nope they hate all of them but i admit many lack historical knowledge to recognize sherman, but they would certainly see his statue and feel an impulse to destroy it
Yes, even as Truman saved many, many lives on both sides by using atomic weapons. Pacifists, and selective pacifists like most on the Left today, generally do not actually understand anything about war, except that it is horrible.
And it is horrible. Unfortunately, as Tolkiens' shield-maiden Eowyn of Rohan observed, "It wants but one foe to breed a war, and those who have not swords may yet die upon them."
rules of war are farce. The winning side does what it needs to win. Afterwards, the world will be to busy trying to resurrect the defeated and still not a nuclear exchange. If Israel were to lose, there would be no Iran to worry about.
We do not need to “hold” Iran. We only need to deny its strategic position and resources and manpower to our main enemies, namely China and Russia. These proxi wars are all about gaininmg strategic position and weakening us befor the main event. We need to keep focus on big picture and not get distracted and overstretched by these proxi wars in Ukraine and Gaza. There may be other such diversions. But the main attack will attempt to cut or control our logistical connections to India and Taiwan.
It is obvious. They see a window opening where we are off balance and overcommitted and where we are in financial trouble because of our weak industry and the need to fund the clean energy transition. They can see that our support for Ukraine is mainly derived from emotional and historical attachments of Poland and the Nordic states(including the UK) to the western provinces. On the other hand some EU members fear Germany and have secret Russian sympathies. Even some NATO members, I.e. Turkey, will gladly join Russia annd China annd Iran and sell out all of nato and the US and Kurds and Arabs, because their true goal is to revive the old Ottoman Empire. India naturally has other plans. Etc etc…..
No one in the Middle East, except for Iranian proxies, would mourn the loss of Iran. Harsh words for public consumption, great celebrations in private. No real consequences for us. It isn't about cred if our government needs anything to motivate them. It is the real threat of Iran with nukes. Besides, we have no cred left in the Middle East, that is why this war started. You don't worry about getting your neighbors house wet when your house is on fire.
Israel understands the long game but it appears that the national security apparatus in the US may not. What is occurring is an existential battle to maintain the Rules Based International Order that was established after WWII which is being seriously challenged by an axis of actors - Russia, Iran and China that want to overturn the existing Order and impose their own rules. The United States has the ability but perhaps not the political will to maintain the Order.
The American public is more than willing to maintain the Rules-Based International Order.
It is the fecklessness of this administration that has created zugzwag that now faces us.
Truth be told, I have no real solution to this other than removing the leash from the Israeli security services and providing them whatever they need to make surgical strikes to decapitate the Iranian leadership.
We would need to help, indeed constrain, the Israelis to execute as cleanly and directly as possible to assure that the Iranian people understand that is is a strike against a tyranny that happens to be Muslim, not a strike against a Muslim tyranny.
I seriously doubt that the Biden, Sullivan, Blinken, Allen cohort has the ability to pull this off as it is that is quartet that has gotten into this unfortunate quandary.
A great start would be to rid Homeland Security and the State Department of personnel with connections to Iran and who have shown support to Iran that is against US interest. The Biden tribe can’t even do that.
I was just going to make a similar comment and include the fact that 31 Americans were also murdered on 10/7 and not a peep. I really feel comfortable that my government has my back
“The latest estimates suggest that Iran would need only around four weeks to acquire enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb and would only need around six months to prepare a test”
———————————————————
If I die in a flash because of Barack Obama and his dipshit racist college buddy Rashid, I am going to be so pissed.
So how often have we heard these past several weeks that when someone tells you who they are, take notice and believe them until proven otherwise; Iran is committed to erasing the Jewish state yet the US looks to ensure a nuclear Iran.... let them use wind and solar to run their country but it is time to take the nuclear option out of their hands.
There are many many articles written by Lee Smith in Tablet Magazine over the past few years. Because of the recent past since 10/7 in Israel, others have jumped in as well. WSJ has an editorial just today.
The exact motivation of Obama for seeking JCPOA with Iran is speculation, because Obama has been silent. I am repeating what many experts have pontificated as possible motivations.
But the fact remains, Obama signed a nuclear deal with Iran, which was not ratified by the Senate, so it is not a Treaty. It was a terrible deal. So bad that Bibi spoke against it in the House, much to his great peril as the Prime Minister of Israel. Bibi even speaks about this episode in his book, and was very respectful of Obama’s disagreement with him.
Trump got out of JCPOA and imposed sanctions to destroy Iran. Had Trump been re-elected, he would have finished what he started. But Biden was elected and the first thing he did was eliminate oil sanctions and try to negotiate another nuclear agreement. We are where we are today because of Obama’s failed policy of appeasing Iran, which was continued by Biden. Biden hired the foreign policy wonks from the Obama White House. Iran is a theocratic regime that openly wants to destroy the US. No nukes for Iran. They have plenty of oil to power their economy.
Remember early on Obama did nothing to support a Revolution in Iran that was brutally suppressed. In my humble opinion Obama brims with the anti-semitism of Rev. Wright’s church and shares some of the Mullahs hatreds
I am hoping that by now the Biden Administration has concluded that Iran cannot be trusted and they abandon all hopes of getting a nuclear agreement with Iran. I don’t know how they can do otherwise.
Ronald Reagan had a very successful foreign policy.
GHWB was doing an adequate job of managing the fall of Soviet Union, but lost re-election on a throw-away one liner. Clinton was more interested in proving that he and Hillary were the smartest idiots on the planet than they were protecting the gains that accrued to the collapse of our only real rival.
Iran is the root cause; all of these proxies are symptoms. So strike at the root. Israel can take out Iran’s ability to load vessels with oil for export. Take away $4-5 B in earnings per month and see how the regime fares.
Of course oil prices will shoot up. Too bad our President drained half of the SPR for political purposes earlier, as today’s situation is what it was created for. Saudi can fill the Iranian gap. Means more earnings for Saudi and Russia, but more pain for China. No perfect solutions, just compromises.
Perhaps, although Mid East unrest is not in China’s interest. They are at the long end of a narrow oil supply straw.
No chance an invasion of Iran would be wise. But if the Iranian people could see that the regime is getting toppled…? Maybe a long putt but not as long as China coming in to do what you suggest.
Elizabeth Economy noted as a guest on Uncommon Knowledge that the CCP makes up a very small % of Chinese people - it would seem plausible that if China begins a war outside of Taiwan/South China Sea that the leadership would be facing a difficult time gaining internal support, but then they have managed pretty well under the governments COVID policies...
This intractable hatred towards Israel, dominates Irans actions, globally. Few know why and even fewer are willing to discuss the reason why.
The hard-Sunni branch of Islam has always labeled birth of Shia branch of Islam a Jewish conspiracy. Sunni-Shia schism of Islam was due Jewish machinations! And they have a culprit., Ka'b a convert to Islam, formerly a Jew. So the only way Ayatollahs' prove their mettle, justify truth of their own existence, is extinguish the Jewish race, forever!!!
If you understand this, you will recognize that long as the Ayatollahs rule, there can be no peace.
Let us all help Israel remove the Ayatollahs. From Lebanon, from Yemen and from Iran. Good things will happen.
We, for all our dithering, remain the baddest dog in the fight. Why are we afraid to act like it? How many times must an enemy say "Death to America" before we treat them as an enemy? There are, in fact, good guys and bad guys in the world. FFS, stop pretending we can just talk nice and persuade the bad guys to see the error of their ways. It's getting late. We followed this exact course in the 1930s, right down to the isolationist fringe. By the grace of God, we powered our way through with a superior industrial base. I'm not sure nuclear war will wait for that.
Because the Left--which now controls most institutions in American society--wants Western civilization to collapse, so they can build their Marxist utopia on its ashes. In service of that goal, they yell constantly about "peace," in order to try to shame the sheepdogs into slinking off instead of defending against wolves and thieves.
Great point. What’s the point of being a superpower if you cringe at the use of force? Can you imagine the Roman Empire saying “we’ll, what if someone gets hurt?” There wouldn’t have been a Roman Empire! If Iran could destroy us, they wouldn’t hesitate for a nanosecond.
A very good point. Especially with our massive debt crowding out other spending, rampant misuse of taxpayer dollars and multiple threats. I would add that Rome was also impacted by Malaria and a weakened civil society not unlike our own today.
I think we can handle the multiple threats today. Europe should play an even bigger role in helping Ukraine defend itself. The U.S. can degrade the Revolutionary Guard from the air fairly cost effectively. Taiwan, on the other hand, is a war I don't think we want or can win.
The big conundrum with Pax Americana is this: As our ability to be the world's policeman degrades, do we allow our very capable allies to arm themselves with nuclear weapons deterrents? I'm talking about Japan, Korea, Germany...? Many of their neighbors remained concerned about how these countries might throw their weight around and would prefer we simply guarantee everyone's freedom. Nonetheless, I don't think we have much choice.
There remains the ultimate Actor in Israel's history. Consider (that) Yom Kippur, this past September 25, is the day that Heavenly decrees are issued regarding the coming year's blessings and judgements. The following week of Sukkot, October 1st thru the 7th (the 8th outside of Israel) is the time these decrees begin enforcement. The Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy was ousted on Tuesday, the 3rd day of Sukkot. The Hamas terrorist massacre happened on the last day, Simcha Torah. IOW this (Jewish) year started out with uncommon upheaval.
If this drives the Jews back to the Torah and an affirmation of their Light to the Nations, we can expect wonderful outcomes. What if, in this profound massacre sadness, God is counting noses, noting who is on the right side of His history?
'The problem for Israel is that, unlike chess, this is a multiplayer game. And the main player on Israel’s side, the United States, does not yet appreciate that it too is under zugzwang. Israel and America have to act. And they have to act together. The alternative is victory not only for Hamas, not only for Iran, but also for the new Axis the Western world confronts.
As much as I like Niall, he is premature. There are two American carrier attack groups parked outside Lebanon as we speak with enough firepower to obliterate a city. Airpower has been increased at nearby bases. If Hezbollah were to begin firing their missile batteries towards Israel en masse - that is when America's mettle will be tested. Do we respond? If we do, as I expect we would, this article is moot. If we do not - then this article has merit. Not before.
I do not think we will respond to the extent necessary. I do not think there is a single person in the Biden Administration with the cajones to give the necessary orders.
That’s “cojones”, amiga Mia. Cajones are empty boxes, which aptly summarizes the Obama/Biden foreign policy. Come to think of it, cajones makes equal sense.
Regaining lost ground on a battlefield requires a great deal of acumen, a character trait that has been drained from our military and non-military assets.
That, sadly, was the intent of both the Obama and Biden administrations which have managed to needlessly squander established positions and more than a trillion dollars in equipment and infrastructure.
The damage that has been done to the understanding of US commitments around the world has no price on it. Were one able to monetize that loss, the tag would be enormous.
Skip Gaza for the moment, crush the IRGC in Iran, and I mean “crush” them. Then, from a position of strength, circle back with Hamas and dictate the terms of their surrender. Niall is right, there are no easy, risk-free solutions. I vote for an approach that completely upends the Iranian-funded terrorism status quo.
A very good article, though as a former chess player I really don't like the zugzwang analogy. In chess, when you are in a zugzwang situation, you have essentially lost the game. Israel was indeed put into a very difficult situation, and it is true that every move is fraught with more pain and blood, but I hope it will find a way out. For sure the next months won't be easy... And we should think ahead how to make sure that Iran doesn't get the nuclear bomb. Imagine how much worse things would be after that. That people are not seriously trying to stop it is possibly the biggest blunders of our times, that will have devastating consequences.
If Israel is necessarily dependent on the Biden administration to act then I fear all is lost. I have hope that this will not be the case. That with great peril will come great opportunity to finally change the game.
Ferguson may ultimately be right - and the US will be drawn in to finally cap Iran and it's proxies instead of the useless, endless cozying. One thing this latest dustup must have proved to everyone, whether Democrat or Republican, is that Iran cannot be allowed, EVER, to obtain a nuclear device. But so far I am not convinced that this Israeli incursion won't end like the last three - with reduced Hamas military capability, if not destruction - when Israel will again go back to the job of containment as they have since 2005. And the US will hopefully learn another lesson on how to contain the great evil in Iran and shove the rose-colored Liberal glasses on this deadly adversary they've been using up their collective asses.
I believe that only Israel knows how advanced Iran is at building the bomb. And they have said that they won't permit it. So far, Israel has killed a few Iranian nuclear scientists. If it is deemed necessary, they will bomb the hell out of the place. Iran cannot be allowed a nuclear bomb.
We cannot be seen to be doing it unless it can be done quietly, quickly, and cleanly. Anything that would suggest a threat to Russian territorial hegemony would be seen by Putin as an attack on him.
Perhaps, the answer is the decapitation of both Iran and Russia simultaneously...an impossible task...until, of course, it isn't.
Gamed out, it might just be the right strategy.
To those who think we should not get into another war: I understand and believe that that would be the best of the United States.
The problem is that the war is already being brought to us in Ukraine and, now, over Gaza, Lebanon, Hamas, and Hezbollah, all backed by Russia and a radical Muslim regime uninterested in rational compromise. And, that won't change until the Russian and Iranian regimes get the idea that a loss is impending and inevitable.
Gaza is a side-show. You must carry the fight to those responsible that benefit.
The hurt has to go to Iran, a very serious surprise military attack designed to take out the Ayaotollahs for deceit. Bomb that American university section to sand, destroy the Emir's palace and end him. Hit the section of Qatar that all those Hamas "leaders" live and get rid of them. Best would be complete destruction of all of Qatar, including all of its oil wells. Leave them burn. The smoke will lower global warming. Enough deceit.
Force the oil states to come crawling and set harsh conditions that require them to collectively destroy: All of Hamas. All of ISIS. All of Al Qaeda - root and branch. Tell them to bring their troops in to search house by house and root them out --- and then leave, and give up Gaza forever.
Is the goal of “eliminating Hamas” attainable and, if so, will it be a Pyrrhic victory? Hamas has had a lot more time to prepare than Isis did in Falluja. Are there other ways to degrade Hamas’ capabilities - longterm siege of Gaza City? “Bunker-busting” munitions to collapse the tunnels? Flooding the tunnels (which likely sit just above the water table)? And if Hamas is eliminated, will another, even more radical group pop up in a few years? I hope Israel’s leaders are acting strategically and not just out of rage or politics. I am heartsick at the prospect of losing so many young Israeli Jews…again.
Every time I hear about Hamas's tunnel network, the words "thermobaric weapons" spring to mind. I have a feeling Israel will use them the moment they despair of any more hostages being release or rescued.
Israel should play to its own strengths: control aid to Gaza until all civilians are released. Hold spot elections for Palestinians (vote in exchange for food/water) to see whether they support Hamas or want new leadership. If hostages are killed, Hamas prisoners in Israel are executed at a rate of 10:1. Incent Palestinians to turn in Hamas operatives. Never let your enemy dictate the terms of engagement.
The economic blockade, a viable strategy and a legal one to a degree under international law, might be effective in the short term, but it is going to quickly run into intense international pressure for "humanitarian" reasons. And, unfortunately, the humanitarian reasons would be real.
How long would it take for the Gazan Palestinians to give in to the concept of "spot elections", recognizing that this round of the uprising is being fought by the children blighted by the last round of serious "hellos" and "greetings"? Some of the women might go along, as would some of the elderly. But are the women going to be allowed to vote in a jacked-up, bloodied Gazan community? Would they actually be free to vote as they wished? How many of them lost children, either physically or emotionally, to last generation's folly?
I think it is a sad reality that no matter how thoroughly Israel obliterates Hamas and Hezbollah, there will remain a thread that will become a future radical Islamic movement. We may see a skip in generations before the troubles begin again, but I think this conflict will continue until one side or the other is humbled into capitulation.
And, there will be no Abe Lincoln to insist on "letting them down easy"...
You're right about the economic blockade - time is not Israel's friend given global media pressure. The spot elections - I would make them non-binding - are not a logistical layup but could be done and supervised by all the international aid agencies there. The main concern of most Gazans would be to make sure Hamas doesn't find out how they voted.
Your overall observation about this going on indefinitely is confirmed by contemporary Middle Eastern history. As I've said in other posts, if you don't get Iranian mollahs (via Quds and the IRGC) out of the business of fomenting terror worldwide, there is zero chance this won't happen again. Bottom line: there are no easy answers. But I think the best of all our bad choices has to look beyond the present into the context of the next 50 years. Going door to door in Gaza is a terrible risk/reward for all parties. My favorite choice is a joint U.S./Israeli devastating strike on the Ayatollah's private army - in Iran. The risks are high, especially in the short term, but the rewards - unlike a ground invasion of Gaza - could be game changing for the entire region as a plethora of terrorist groups lose their funding, arms flow and training.
I don't know the logistics involved, but it seems to me that flooding the tunnels and keeping them flooded is the only way to force Hamas out into the open.
There's a neat new war tool, a product that is like a foam-and-fill, which will close up one end of a tunnel while explorations can take place at the other end. I have heard that the Israelis have this.
There is a “tunnel bomb” that is purported to explode then expand which blocks the tunnels. This type of bomb may be especially useful since there are reports that Hamas has built HQ in tunnels under a hospital. Although using medical facilities as coverage for military operation is a clear violation of the Geneva Convention, Israel needs to be smart with reducing the risk to their soldiers and actual hospital patients.
The remarkable part is that the international community has chosen to ignore the Hamas tactic of using human shields. As one pundit wrote, this is the first war in recorded history where the population is deemed as an expendable asset,
I have no interest in seeing the United States engaged in another conflict overseas. But, this one, it would seem, is one where the destruction of Hamas represents one of those greater goods that needs to be fought now as to fight it later would be at a far greater cost to a free and equal world.
Egypt tried filling them with raw sewage with limited effectiveness. Israel has tried cement but it is too time consuming. Finding and collapsing as many as possible is probably the best solution.
Sea water seems like the best resource. Cement requires too much material. Sewage is difficult to transport in quantity, and the volume required for the project is larger than the supply. But sea water could be collected and dropped in ways that are already being used for firefighting.
I'm thinking it all the time. I don't know if we would allow Israel to nuke them, nor do I know if Israel needs our OK. But I believe that the Saudis would allow Israel to fly over.
Time for us to step back and let Netanyahu and his war cabinet decide what is best for Israel.
Potato Joe and his Marxist apologists need to understand that Israel is doing the heavy lifting in a job that we should have been doing since 1979 when Carter (D-Ga) stood around sucking Rosalyn's thumb when one of our staunchest allies was being overthrown thanks to the bungling of Bill Casey and a CIA more interested in sticking finger in the eyes of the Soviet Union.
Bill Casey had no connection to Jimmy Carter. He was an old OSS operative, Wall Street insider, Reagan’s first CIA director, a centerpiece in Iran Contra and may have been instrumental in delaying the release of the hostages.
By left wing standards Shermans march to the sea would be called a war crime, but the same people who attack Israel would never say that. War is terrible but when it is waged must be won. The same who scream ceasefire were filled with glee over mass rape and executions. Harden your hearts without becoming monsters and win.
Joe Biden is no Lincoln and try spotting Gen Sherman in Washington DC.
The US has squandered the lives of military forces in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam along with billions of dollars in equipment. We have fought wars without objectives; without adaptation to nonconventional warfare; and with rules of engagement that put military units at risk.
The strategy needs to be more than just bomb Iran and eliminate Hamas. It is also occupation for years to come. Would there ever be acceptance of the US as an occupying force like there is with US occupation along the border of South Korea?
The author's analogy of a chess game is appropriate, because it is a thoughtful and anticipates the many moves of the enemy. US foreign policy is currently designed for checkers.
US foreign policy doesn't have a design. It is an ad hoc hodge-podge of neo-Marxist concepts that can never recognize the real task confronting our nation.
Jake Sullivan is an acolyte of Barack Obama and Ben Rhodes who sees the United States as yesterday's leader. They have, with the help of Biden and folk like four-star general Mark Malley have stripped our military of its potency and has left us in a position of begging our allies to actually be allies.
It will take decades and untold billions to get us back to the force strength we had at the end of the Trump administration, let alone the strength we had before Obama took office.
We are in a perfect storm of incompetent leadership, the the point where there is serious doubt as whether leadership actually supports the concept of American security.
Absolutely spot on with two exceptions.
First: American security begins at our borders. Leadership under Biden has proven without a doubt that there is no concern or concept of securing America.
Second: The struggles for important parts to support military equipment was also a struggle under Trump. Most infamously, when aircraft parts were requested from the Smithsonian.
No, it wouldn't, because the Left determines a permanent, immutable moral high ground using subjective, selective application of "intersectionality" criteria. It would have decided that Sherman was fighting for the good guys, just like Hamas, and the same moral cover that applied to Hamas's terrorism would apply to Sherman.
Regardless, the galling evil that is Leftism must be fought much more aggressively than it has been to this point.
The authors are correct, Israel is fighting its last war against Hamas whether the world likes it or not. It has no choice but to fight and win. If Israel is gone, our enemies will be completely convinced that the US is a shell of its former self. The Hezbollah and Hamas terrorists in the West will attack and the US will lose the will to defend Taiwan and deter China. This has been in the making, with intention, since Obama was elected. May God help Israel do what it must. May Israel embolden the US to do what it must with Iran. To not act is to die a little more slowly and torturously. The Democrats are responsible for creating this quagmire and they lack the will to act responsibly.
If BS is suggesting the existential end to the State of Israel, he/ she hasn’t consulted with the Jewish people. This isn’t 3 years post WW II with a ragtag army of Holocaust survivors winning a miraculous war of Independence in 1948. When 100,000 reservists were called up 2 weeks ago, who were either visiting or residing overseas, 150,000 showed up. This is more likely (God forbid) ending in a nuclear response from Israel than any sort of capitulation and evacuation. Submarines operating within 3 minutes flight time from Tehran are not asleep.
Everybody calm down. Israel may have a fight on its hands, but hardly one it's close to losing. It's a long way from a momentary lapse of discipline and training on a border to ceasing to exist. Israel has more people and a 10x GDP per cap advantage over Palestine, and recent events don't change where this is all headed - a strong Israel with more control, not less.
Make no mistake about it; the American left considers Sherman one of the greatest evils of all time. Only Lincoln and Grant are worse. Those three permanently ended the institution of slavery and the American left will never forgive them for that.
Do you actually believe this? Americans almost universally admire Lincoln, don’t
give Grant much thought and don’t even know who Sherman was.
nope they hate all of them but i admit many lack historical knowledge to recognize sherman, but they would certainly see his statue and feel an impulse to destroy it
Sherman is hated still in Georgia and South Carolina not states I consider blue
asking whether a person believes facts is rather simplistic. it's like asking if the sun is warm.
if americans don't know sherman and grant it is because the american left has destroyed the public school system.
That this has happened is news?
nope. it's a conversation.
According to Civil War historians I have read, Sherman saved lives on both sides of the divide by his uncompromising commitment to win.
Yes, even as Truman saved many, many lives on both sides by using atomic weapons. Pacifists, and selective pacifists like most on the Left today, generally do not actually understand anything about war, except that it is horrible.
And it is horrible. Unfortunately, as Tolkiens' shield-maiden Eowyn of Rohan observed, "It wants but one foe to breed a war, and those who have not swords may yet die upon them."
i agree , he understood war and what it was
What a great comment Rob, unfortunately easier said than done.
Enemies: the left have banished the idea of having enemies. Such arrogance.
Oh they have enemies
rules of war are farce. The winning side does what it needs to win. Afterwards, the world will be to busy trying to resurrect the defeated and still not a nuclear exchange. If Israel were to lose, there would be no Iran to worry about.
We do not need to “hold” Iran. We only need to deny its strategic position and resources and manpower to our main enemies, namely China and Russia. These proxi wars are all about gaininmg strategic position and weakening us befor the main event. We need to keep focus on big picture and not get distracted and overstretched by these proxi wars in Ukraine and Gaza. There may be other such diversions. But the main attack will attempt to cut or control our logistical connections to India and Taiwan.
It is obvious. They see a window opening where we are off balance and overcommitted and where we are in financial trouble because of our weak industry and the need to fund the clean energy transition. They can see that our support for Ukraine is mainly derived from emotional and historical attachments of Poland and the Nordic states(including the UK) to the western provinces. On the other hand some EU members fear Germany and have secret Russian sympathies. Even some NATO members, I.e. Turkey, will gladly join Russia annd China annd Iran and sell out all of nato and the US and Kurds and Arabs, because their true goal is to revive the old Ottoman Empire. India naturally has other plans. Etc etc…..
No one in the Middle East, except for Iranian proxies, would mourn the loss of Iran. Harsh words for public consumption, great celebrations in private. No real consequences for us. It isn't about cred if our government needs anything to motivate them. It is the real threat of Iran with nukes. Besides, we have no cred left in the Middle East, that is why this war started. You don't worry about getting your neighbors house wet when your house is on fire.
The point made was predicated on no more Iran, as in blown off the map.
The no consequences meant no consequences from other countries in the region.
As for the last line, that was the point.
"This is Iran’s war. But this administration refuses to acknowledge as much for fear that it will be compelled to act."
sad and succinct
Israel understands the long game but it appears that the national security apparatus in the US may not. What is occurring is an existential battle to maintain the Rules Based International Order that was established after WWII which is being seriously challenged by an axis of actors - Russia, Iran and China that want to overturn the existing Order and impose their own rules. The United States has the ability but perhaps not the political will to maintain the Order.
our ruling class believes the usa is a force of evil , they are not capable of enforcing anything
They are good at interfering with elections to the point of criminality.
We’ll said, Eric.
The American public is more than willing to maintain the Rules-Based International Order.
It is the fecklessness of this administration that has created zugzwag that now faces us.
Truth be told, I have no real solution to this other than removing the leash from the Israeli security services and providing them whatever they need to make surgical strikes to decapitate the Iranian leadership.
We would need to help, indeed constrain, the Israelis to execute as cleanly and directly as possible to assure that the Iranian people understand that is is a strike against a tyranny that happens to be Muslim, not a strike against a Muslim tyranny.
I seriously doubt that the Biden, Sullivan, Blinken, Allen cohort has the ability to pull this off as it is that is quartet that has gotten into this unfortunate quandary.
A great start would be to rid Homeland Security and the State Department of personnel with connections to Iran and who have shown support to Iran that is against US interest. The Biden tribe can’t even do that.
This administration refuses to act because they’re bloody cowards.
I was just going to make a similar comment and include the fact that 31 Americans were also murdered on 10/7 and not a peep. I really feel comfortable that my government has my back
Then why are America's forces parked outside of Lebanon?
panic
Because putting them in the Persian Gulf is a stupid move.
As would putting them in the North Atlantic..
They'are already there/
As they are in the Gulf..
“The latest estimates suggest that Iran would need only around four weeks to acquire enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb and would only need around six months to prepare a test”
———————————————————
If I die in a flash because of Barack Obama and his dipshit racist college buddy Rashid, I am going to be so pissed.
Yup, Obama wanted a nuclear Iran to balance Israel, so the U.S. could exit the Middle East.
So how often have we heard these past several weeks that when someone tells you who they are, take notice and believe them until proven otherwise; Iran is committed to erasing the Jewish state yet the US looks to ensure a nuclear Iran.... let them use wind and solar to run their country but it is time to take the nuclear option out of their hands.
I completely agree.
That's an interesting take...Care to expound on that?
There are many many articles written by Lee Smith in Tablet Magazine over the past few years. Because of the recent past since 10/7 in Israel, others have jumped in as well. WSJ has an editorial just today.
The exact motivation of Obama for seeking JCPOA with Iran is speculation, because Obama has been silent. I am repeating what many experts have pontificated as possible motivations.
But the fact remains, Obama signed a nuclear deal with Iran, which was not ratified by the Senate, so it is not a Treaty. It was a terrible deal. So bad that Bibi spoke against it in the House, much to his great peril as the Prime Minister of Israel. Bibi even speaks about this episode in his book, and was very respectful of Obama’s disagreement with him.
Trump got out of JCPOA and imposed sanctions to destroy Iran. Had Trump been re-elected, he would have finished what he started. But Biden was elected and the first thing he did was eliminate oil sanctions and try to negotiate another nuclear agreement. We are where we are today because of Obama’s failed policy of appeasing Iran, which was continued by Biden. Biden hired the foreign policy wonks from the Obama White House. Iran is a theocratic regime that openly wants to destroy the US. No nukes for Iran. They have plenty of oil to power their economy.
Remember early on Obama did nothing to support a Revolution in Iran that was brutally suppressed. In my humble opinion Obama brims with the anti-semitism of Rev. Wright’s church and shares some of the Mullahs hatreds
Yes, Obama sided with the Muslim Brotherhood.
That’s all you need to know.
I am hoping that by now the Biden Administration has concluded that Iran cannot be trusted and they abandon all hopes of getting a nuclear agreement with Iran. I don’t know how they can do otherwise.
Spot on!
“It’s the end of the world as we know it, it’s the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine”
Or pissed…Amen
REM.
Kevin, if we all die in a flash.... Down for an F**** Joe Biden party in hell?
Ronald Reagan had a very successful foreign policy.
GHWB was doing an adequate job of managing the fall of Soviet Union, but lost re-election on a throw-away one liner. Clinton was more interested in proving that he and Hillary were the smartest idiots on the planet than they were protecting the gains that accrued to the collapse of our only real rival.
Iran is the root cause; all of these proxies are symptoms. So strike at the root. Israel can take out Iran’s ability to load vessels with oil for export. Take away $4-5 B in earnings per month and see how the regime fares.
Of course oil prices will shoot up. Too bad our President drained half of the SPR for political purposes earlier, as today’s situation is what it was created for. Saudi can fill the Iranian gap. Means more earnings for Saudi and Russia, but more pain for China. No perfect solutions, just compromises.
Perhaps, although Mid East unrest is not in China’s interest. They are at the long end of a narrow oil supply straw.
No chance an invasion of Iran would be wise. But if the Iranian people could see that the regime is getting toppled…? Maybe a long putt but not as long as China coming in to do what you suggest.
Elizabeth Economy noted as a guest on Uncommon Knowledge that the CCP makes up a very small % of Chinese people - it would seem plausible that if China begins a war outside of Taiwan/South China Sea that the leadership would be facing a difficult time gaining internal support, but then they have managed pretty well under the governments COVID policies...
It may be the only putt that makes sense.
So many potential scenarios. Didn’t expect the Iranians to be this stupid/arrogant.
Don't count on Joe Biden to make the right call. He's been screwing foreign policy up since he voted to abandon the South Vietnamese in 1975.
This is Iran's war. And there is a reason why.
This intractable hatred towards Israel, dominates Irans actions, globally. Few know why and even fewer are willing to discuss the reason why.
The hard-Sunni branch of Islam has always labeled birth of Shia branch of Islam a Jewish conspiracy. Sunni-Shia schism of Islam was due Jewish machinations! And they have a culprit., Ka'b a convert to Islam, formerly a Jew. So the only way Ayatollahs' prove their mettle, justify truth of their own existence, is extinguish the Jewish race, forever!!!
If you understand this, you will recognize that long as the Ayatollahs rule, there can be no peace.
Let us all help Israel remove the Ayatollahs. From Lebanon, from Yemen and from Iran. Good things will happen.
We, for all our dithering, remain the baddest dog in the fight. Why are we afraid to act like it? How many times must an enemy say "Death to America" before we treat them as an enemy? There are, in fact, good guys and bad guys in the world. FFS, stop pretending we can just talk nice and persuade the bad guys to see the error of their ways. It's getting late. We followed this exact course in the 1930s, right down to the isolationist fringe. By the grace of God, we powered our way through with a superior industrial base. I'm not sure nuclear war will wait for that.
Because the Left--which now controls most institutions in American society--wants Western civilization to collapse, so they can build their Marxist utopia on its ashes. In service of that goal, they yell constantly about "peace," in order to try to shame the sheepdogs into slinking off instead of defending against wolves and thieves.
Great point. What’s the point of being a superpower if you cringe at the use of force? Can you imagine the Roman Empire saying “we’ll, what if someone gets hurt?” There wouldn’t have been a Roman Empire! If Iran could destroy us, they wouldn’t hesitate for a nanosecond.
A very good point. Especially with our massive debt crowding out other spending, rampant misuse of taxpayer dollars and multiple threats. I would add that Rome was also impacted by Malaria and a weakened civil society not unlike our own today.
I think we can handle the multiple threats today. Europe should play an even bigger role in helping Ukraine defend itself. The U.S. can degrade the Revolutionary Guard from the air fairly cost effectively. Taiwan, on the other hand, is a war I don't think we want or can win.
The big conundrum with Pax Americana is this: As our ability to be the world's policeman degrades, do we allow our very capable allies to arm themselves with nuclear weapons deterrents? I'm talking about Japan, Korea, Germany...? Many of their neighbors remained concerned about how these countries might throw their weight around and would prefer we simply guarantee everyone's freedom. Nonetheless, I don't think we have much choice.
There remains the ultimate Actor in Israel's history. Consider (that) Yom Kippur, this past September 25, is the day that Heavenly decrees are issued regarding the coming year's blessings and judgements. The following week of Sukkot, October 1st thru the 7th (the 8th outside of Israel) is the time these decrees begin enforcement. The Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy was ousted on Tuesday, the 3rd day of Sukkot. The Hamas terrorist massacre happened on the last day, Simcha Torah. IOW this (Jewish) year started out with uncommon upheaval.
If this drives the Jews back to the Torah and an affirmation of their Light to the Nations, we can expect wonderful outcomes. What if, in this profound massacre sadness, God is counting noses, noting who is on the right side of His history?
'The problem for Israel is that, unlike chess, this is a multiplayer game. And the main player on Israel’s side, the United States, does not yet appreciate that it too is under zugzwang. Israel and America have to act. And they have to act together. The alternative is victory not only for Hamas, not only for Iran, but also for the new Axis the Western world confronts.
As much as I like Niall, he is premature. There are two American carrier attack groups parked outside Lebanon as we speak with enough firepower to obliterate a city. Airpower has been increased at nearby bases. If Hezbollah were to begin firing their missile batteries towards Israel en masse - that is when America's mettle will be tested. Do we respond? If we do, as I expect we would, this article is moot. If we do not - then this article has merit. Not before.
I do not think we will respond to the extent necessary. I do not think there is a single person in the Biden Administration with the cajones to give the necessary orders.
That’s “cojones”, amiga Mia. Cajones are empty boxes, which aptly summarizes the Obama/Biden foreign policy. Come to think of it, cajones makes equal sense.
Sorry, my Spanish is not so good.
Sie haben keinen Eier!
Mach nichts. Keinen eier… ya, das geht.
"As I expect we would." You have a way different conception of Biden the warrior than I do.
Regaining lost ground on a battlefield requires a great deal of acumen, a character trait that has been drained from our military and non-military assets.
That, sadly, was the intent of both the Obama and Biden administrations which have managed to needlessly squander established positions and more than a trillion dollars in equipment and infrastructure.
The damage that has been done to the understanding of US commitments around the world has no price on it. Were one able to monetize that loss, the tag would be enormous.
Skip Gaza for the moment, crush the IRGC in Iran, and I mean “crush” them. Then, from a position of strength, circle back with Hamas and dictate the terms of their surrender. Niall is right, there are no easy, risk-free solutions. I vote for an approach that completely upends the Iranian-funded terrorism status quo.
A very good article, though as a former chess player I really don't like the zugzwang analogy. In chess, when you are in a zugzwang situation, you have essentially lost the game. Israel was indeed put into a very difficult situation, and it is true that every move is fraught with more pain and blood, but I hope it will find a way out. For sure the next months won't be easy... And we should think ahead how to make sure that Iran doesn't get the nuclear bomb. Imagine how much worse things would be after that. That people are not seriously trying to stop it is possibly the biggest blunders of our times, that will have devastating consequences.
If Israel is necessarily dependent on the Biden administration to act then I fear all is lost. I have hope that this will not be the case. That with great peril will come great opportunity to finally change the game.
Ferguson may ultimately be right - and the US will be drawn in to finally cap Iran and it's proxies instead of the useless, endless cozying. One thing this latest dustup must have proved to everyone, whether Democrat or Republican, is that Iran cannot be allowed, EVER, to obtain a nuclear device. But so far I am not convinced that this Israeli incursion won't end like the last three - with reduced Hamas military capability, if not destruction - when Israel will again go back to the job of containment as they have since 2005. And the US will hopefully learn another lesson on how to contain the great evil in Iran and shove the rose-colored Liberal glasses on this deadly adversary they've been using up their collective asses.
They can have one in a month. This is bad. World changing bad. Thanks, Barack.
I believe that only Israel knows how advanced Iran is at building the bomb. And they have said that they won't permit it. So far, Israel has killed a few Iranian nuclear scientists. If it is deemed necessary, they will bomb the hell out of the place. Iran cannot be allowed a nuclear bomb.
We cannot be seen to be doing it unless it can be done quietly, quickly, and cleanly. Anything that would suggest a threat to Russian territorial hegemony would be seen by Putin as an attack on him.
Perhaps, the answer is the decapitation of both Iran and Russia simultaneously...an impossible task...until, of course, it isn't.
Gamed out, it might just be the right strategy.
To those who think we should not get into another war: I understand and believe that that would be the best of the United States.
The problem is that the war is already being brought to us in Ukraine and, now, over Gaza, Lebanon, Hamas, and Hezbollah, all backed by Russia and a radical Muslim regime uninterested in rational compromise. And, that won't change until the Russian and Iranian regimes get the idea that a loss is impending and inevitable.
Gaza is a side-show. You must carry the fight to those responsible that benefit.
The hurt has to go to Iran, a very serious surprise military attack designed to take out the Ayaotollahs for deceit. Bomb that American university section to sand, destroy the Emir's palace and end him. Hit the section of Qatar that all those Hamas "leaders" live and get rid of them. Best would be complete destruction of all of Qatar, including all of its oil wells. Leave them burn. The smoke will lower global warming. Enough deceit.
Force the oil states to come crawling and set harsh conditions that require them to collectively destroy: All of Hamas. All of ISIS. All of Al Qaeda - root and branch. Tell them to bring their troops in to search house by house and root them out --- and then leave, and give up Gaza forever.
Is the goal of “eliminating Hamas” attainable and, if so, will it be a Pyrrhic victory? Hamas has had a lot more time to prepare than Isis did in Falluja. Are there other ways to degrade Hamas’ capabilities - longterm siege of Gaza City? “Bunker-busting” munitions to collapse the tunnels? Flooding the tunnels (which likely sit just above the water table)? And if Hamas is eliminated, will another, even more radical group pop up in a few years? I hope Israel’s leaders are acting strategically and not just out of rage or politics. I am heartsick at the prospect of losing so many young Israeli Jews…again.
If they were acting out of rage they would have moved before now
Every time I hear about Hamas's tunnel network, the words "thermobaric weapons" spring to mind. I have a feeling Israel will use them the moment they despair of any more hostages being release or rescued.
I agree. To me, the risk/reward of a Gaza land invasion is poor, and it plays to Hamas’ strengths.
Israel should play to its own strengths: control aid to Gaza until all civilians are released. Hold spot elections for Palestinians (vote in exchange for food/water) to see whether they support Hamas or want new leadership. If hostages are killed, Hamas prisoners in Israel are executed at a rate of 10:1. Incent Palestinians to turn in Hamas operatives. Never let your enemy dictate the terms of engagement.
The economic blockade, a viable strategy and a legal one to a degree under international law, might be effective in the short term, but it is going to quickly run into intense international pressure for "humanitarian" reasons. And, unfortunately, the humanitarian reasons would be real.
How long would it take for the Gazan Palestinians to give in to the concept of "spot elections", recognizing that this round of the uprising is being fought by the children blighted by the last round of serious "hellos" and "greetings"? Some of the women might go along, as would some of the elderly. But are the women going to be allowed to vote in a jacked-up, bloodied Gazan community? Would they actually be free to vote as they wished? How many of them lost children, either physically or emotionally, to last generation's folly?
I think it is a sad reality that no matter how thoroughly Israel obliterates Hamas and Hezbollah, there will remain a thread that will become a future radical Islamic movement. We may see a skip in generations before the troubles begin again, but I think this conflict will continue until one side or the other is humbled into capitulation.
And, there will be no Abe Lincoln to insist on "letting them down easy"...
You're right about the economic blockade - time is not Israel's friend given global media pressure. The spot elections - I would make them non-binding - are not a logistical layup but could be done and supervised by all the international aid agencies there. The main concern of most Gazans would be to make sure Hamas doesn't find out how they voted.
Your overall observation about this going on indefinitely is confirmed by contemporary Middle Eastern history. As I've said in other posts, if you don't get Iranian mollahs (via Quds and the IRGC) out of the business of fomenting terror worldwide, there is zero chance this won't happen again. Bottom line: there are no easy answers. But I think the best of all our bad choices has to look beyond the present into the context of the next 50 years. Going door to door in Gaza is a terrible risk/reward for all parties. My favorite choice is a joint U.S./Israeli devastating strike on the Ayatollah's private army - in Iran. The risks are high, especially in the short term, but the rewards - unlike a ground invasion of Gaza - could be game changing for the entire region as a plethora of terrorist groups lose their funding, arms flow and training.
I don't know the logistics involved, but it seems to me that flooding the tunnels and keeping them flooded is the only way to force Hamas out into the open.
There's a neat new war tool, a product that is like a foam-and-fill, which will close up one end of a tunnel while explorations can take place at the other end. I have heard that the Israelis have this.
There is a “tunnel bomb” that is purported to explode then expand which blocks the tunnels. This type of bomb may be especially useful since there are reports that Hamas has built HQ in tunnels under a hospital. Although using medical facilities as coverage for military operation is a clear violation of the Geneva Convention, Israel needs to be smart with reducing the risk to their soldiers and actual hospital patients.
The remarkable part is that the international community has chosen to ignore the Hamas tactic of using human shields. As one pundit wrote, this is the first war in recorded history where the population is deemed as an expendable asset,
I have no interest in seeing the United States engaged in another conflict overseas. But, this one, it would seem, is one where the destruction of Hamas represents one of those greater goods that needs to be fought now as to fight it later would be at a far greater cost to a free and equal world.
Egypt tried filling them with raw sewage with limited effectiveness. Israel has tried cement but it is too time consuming. Finding and collapsing as many as possible is probably the best solution.
Sea water seems like the best resource. Cement requires too much material. Sewage is difficult to transport in quantity, and the volume required for the project is larger than the supply. But sea water could be collected and dropped in ways that are already being used for firefighting.
Leave it to Biden, Sullivan, Blinken and Allen to rope-a-dope us into a position where we have to sell the Israelis down the river.
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f**k up a foreign policy issue. For once, we should listen to Obama.
But Israel has the ultimate deterrent
Which
If it means the end of Israel or it’s continued role as the only democratic country in the Middle East
You can guess the outcome
So be it
I'm thinking it all the time. I don't know if we would allow Israel to nuke them, nor do I know if Israel needs our OK. But I believe that the Saudis would allow Israel to fly over.
Yes, the Saudi airspace is open to Israel. At the same time as I have great faith in the abilities of the Israelis, I am very worried.
You said it out loud - I'm sure many are thinking it.
Israel, unleashed, is the ultimate deterrent.
Time for us to step back and let Netanyahu and his war cabinet decide what is best for Israel.
Potato Joe and his Marxist apologists need to understand that Israel is doing the heavy lifting in a job that we should have been doing since 1979 when Carter (D-Ga) stood around sucking Rosalyn's thumb when one of our staunchest allies was being overthrown thanks to the bungling of Bill Casey and a CIA more interested in sticking finger in the eyes of the Soviet Union.
Bill Casey had no connection to Jimmy Carter. He was an old OSS operative, Wall Street insider, Reagan’s first CIA director, a centerpiece in Iran Contra and may have been instrumental in delaying the release of the hostages.
My error...It was Stansfield Turner who was Carter's CIA director.