A highly pessimistic 'realist' assessment, which would give much aid and comfort to Iran's leadership if they bothered to read it.
I see the position as significantly more complex. It is true that Iran and its proxies are larger and more populous than Israel, and that they are driven by an ideology of genocide. But large questions remain.
First, why has Iran not taken advantage of the IDF's preoccupation with Gaza to strike hard at Israel, using its proxies and their superior missile forces? It must have a reason, perhaps that it is not so confident either of their power or its control over them, or both. Having the Huthis close the Suez Canal doesn't cut it, even if that was an Iranian plan at all.
Second, rapprochement between Israel and moderate Sunni Arab states, and other Muslim states, has been put on ice, not destroyed. No party has left the Abraham Accords, no party had signaled that events in Gaza have permanently ruled out eventual agreement. Moderate Arab states can see that Israel is no threat to them, and potentially a powerful ally. The Palestinians, weak, corrupt and backward-looking, are neither. It can be cogently argued that the realignment of the Middle East is on pause, not in ruins.
Third, is Iran really as strong as it would have the author believe? As perhaps in Gaza, a tight lid is kept on the restive ordinary people, who have little faith in their leaders. Undoubtedly there are those high in the theocracy who see an indefinite war of extermination against Israel as their goal. Will their people grant them time to achieve that?
Fourth, what does Iran really plan to do with its nuclear weapons? Nuke the holy sites of Jerusalem and incinerate thousands of Muslims? Maybe not. Nuke Tel Aviv, with similar results on the Arab population? Maybe not, either. Ask, instead, what does DPR Korea plan to do with its very real nukes? A: threaten other states with them if they show what it deems 'aggression' against it. Ask again: why does Iran need medium-long range ballistic missiles to hit a country almost next door? Or are they really aimed at European capitals? And finally, will Iran start a nuclear war that will end with its destruction?
The problem with 'realist' political assessments is that they're inherently defeatist. The logic goes, navigating conflict is difficult, so let's not even try. Give aggressors what they want, and they'll leave us alone. Read Walt and Mearsheimer on why the West should abandon Ukraine to Russia. Read Chamberlain's 'Peace in our time' speech. Etc.
Israel is no longer fighting heavily financed terrorists to save itself. This is about saving the West, and our leader leaders, who take for granted and enjoy all the benefits and privileges it has awarded them, would rather bask in virtue signals.
Why wouldn't any sane non-suicidal person be pro-Israel? You only have to read Hamas' "in their own words" to see that they're not your friends, and that your belief in the Melanin Meter foreign policy doctrine won't save you. Hamas doesn't discriminate on basis of skin color; they're equal-opportunity killers. The Useful Idiots never ask why the Arab world doesn't help Gazans. It's because they don't want their countries full of Hamas-supporters! The “consensus [of Arab nations regarding Palestine]… recognizes Israel and wants…negotiations with it, but [Hamas] is not ready to give up its support for violence…” Egyptian Foreign Minister S. Shoukry
*International law hasn't escaped the pathocratic language police's moronizing of all W. institutions, so instead of “war” we now have the euphemism “armed conflict.” However, as per international law and the Geneva Convention, there is no war between Hamas and Israel. War is preceded by the "formal act of a state's legitimate government declaring hostile military activity against that of another state." Terrorists "gliding" into a country, murdering 1,200 citizens of said country and kidnapping another 253 is not a war declaration under international law. It's a terrorist attack. https://irislee.substack.com/p/terrorists-and-both-sideism
Israel may be in a long-term losing war with Iran and its web of Islamist allies, but what alternatives does it have against a relentless adversary that seeks not just political dominance of the region but the annihilation of Israel. The US and the West fool themselves into believing there is a peaceful solution to the situation and fail to realize the end game of Iran is the defeat the US and the West. The only effective solution is to side with Israel and aid it in defeating Iran and its Islamist minions. An unconditional statement of support for Israel by the Biden administration would be the most effective step the US could make now.
Seems like Iran is slowly moving towards a different goal- exhaust Western support for Israel, isolate it, and then make their move. They know the U.S. has no stomach and maybe not enough capacity today for a true kinetic war; they are correct that the U.S. population doesn’t want to get involved in direct action in the Middle East or go to war on behalf of Israel. So, drag out a multi-front proxy war as described in this article but in the hopes of getting the world increasing mad at, or sick of, Israel, while not directly provoking the U.S. They’re playing the long game in hopes of getting the U.S. and to a lesser degree the UK and Germany to stop backing Israel. And they seem to be succeeding.
Not so fast. Iran has a collapsing birth rate. Increasing secularization. Encroaching desert. And all of the Shia Muslim dictatorships want nothing to do with Muslim Brotherhood / Hamas Gazans, especially Jordan and Egypt -- Let Israel deal with them.
The best day-to-day narrative of what's going on the ground is Amir Tsafati's Telegraph channel IMO. https://t.me/s/beholdisraelchannel . Keep things in perspective. Israel is fighting the most humane, sophisticated urban war in history against a genocidal enemy.
We, on the other hand, have lost our way both culturally and politically IMO.
It is certainly reasonable to be concerned about Iran. I don’t think its an over reaction to say this is the closest the world has ever been to WWIII. Russia- Ukraine, Israel-Iran, add in North and South Korea or China and Taiwan and we’re there.
I don’t think it all stacks up in favor of Iran. Look at what happened with Desert Storm. Saddam had an army of nearly a million soldiers and got thrashed almost single handedly by our air force. That was the opinion of an Army Vet I worked with who was there. He said they just rolled up to Baghdad and saw nothing but corpses along the way. If the United States wakes up the only real threat Israel faces is a prolonged insurgency by Iranian proxies. We still have the technology edge that we did back then.
I think its reasonable to say the Iron Dome has harmed Israel in a certain way. If every Hamas rocket killed someone, nobody would be questioning Israel. But they don’t. So you get people like Trevor Noah, when he was on the daily show, saying that Hamas trying to bomb Israel was like his little brother trying to hit him growing up.
Anyway I don’t see the authors as off base but it sounds a bit pessimistic to me.
I keep coming back to the same question. Why is the US acting like we are a tribute paying state to the Iranians and the Chinese? We, and our allies, have nothing to gain from it. We are the world's superpower and we act like the Iranians and the Chinese are in charge. So demeaning and frustrating, our leaders clearly haven't read history.
What country has benefited or what people have benefited from Iranian policies? Seems only weapons dealers and the tyrants at the top. The Iranian people are poorer, the countries Iran has toppled are terrorists havens and not governed for the benefit of the people. Just a bunch of Corrupted Godless thugs.
I will add a few more scenarios to the realist assessment of the Middle East conflict. One is that Donald Trump wins and the Abraham Accords are strengthened by Saudi Arabia officially joining them. I hear also rumblings of “day after” Gaza solutions to include multi Arab security forces policing the area. And one scenario is unfortunately a doomsday “elephant in the room” - Islam preaches martyrdom. That’s not good with possession of nuclear weapons and means to deliver them.
One thing Iran hasn't experienced, is a flat out loss among its proxies.
In Yemen, the houthi won. In Lebanon, hezbollah largely does whatever it wants. They've also won.
In Iraq, Iran holds substantial influence and they dominate Syria. Even in Ukraine, they've played a role.
Defeating hamas in Gaza, wiping out their entire leadership and most of hamas' people, would be a win in what's been a string of losses and draws for US and US allies. Add in the loss in Afghanistan and the mixed bag results in Libya, and you begin to realize just how badly the US needs Israel to win this.
Only winning creates deterrence. Something which hasn't happened in a long time.
Well, if history has shown us anything, it is that appeasement works. Especially when a Democratic president is in charge.
Biden is a loser in charge of the loser foreign policy of a loser state...
America has nothing left in its quiver except to watch as an aging moron and his minions fiddle while the world burns around them.
A highly pessimistic 'realist' assessment, which would give much aid and comfort to Iran's leadership if they bothered to read it.
I see the position as significantly more complex. It is true that Iran and its proxies are larger and more populous than Israel, and that they are driven by an ideology of genocide. But large questions remain.
First, why has Iran not taken advantage of the IDF's preoccupation with Gaza to strike hard at Israel, using its proxies and their superior missile forces? It must have a reason, perhaps that it is not so confident either of their power or its control over them, or both. Having the Huthis close the Suez Canal doesn't cut it, even if that was an Iranian plan at all.
Second, rapprochement between Israel and moderate Sunni Arab states, and other Muslim states, has been put on ice, not destroyed. No party has left the Abraham Accords, no party had signaled that events in Gaza have permanently ruled out eventual agreement. Moderate Arab states can see that Israel is no threat to them, and potentially a powerful ally. The Palestinians, weak, corrupt and backward-looking, are neither. It can be cogently argued that the realignment of the Middle East is on pause, not in ruins.
Third, is Iran really as strong as it would have the author believe? As perhaps in Gaza, a tight lid is kept on the restive ordinary people, who have little faith in their leaders. Undoubtedly there are those high in the theocracy who see an indefinite war of extermination against Israel as their goal. Will their people grant them time to achieve that?
Fourth, what does Iran really plan to do with its nuclear weapons? Nuke the holy sites of Jerusalem and incinerate thousands of Muslims? Maybe not. Nuke Tel Aviv, with similar results on the Arab population? Maybe not, either. Ask, instead, what does DPR Korea plan to do with its very real nukes? A: threaten other states with them if they show what it deems 'aggression' against it. Ask again: why does Iran need medium-long range ballistic missiles to hit a country almost next door? Or are they really aimed at European capitals? And finally, will Iran start a nuclear war that will end with its destruction?
The problem with 'realist' political assessments is that they're inherently defeatist. The logic goes, navigating conflict is difficult, so let's not even try. Give aggressors what they want, and they'll leave us alone. Read Walt and Mearsheimer on why the West should abandon Ukraine to Russia. Read Chamberlain's 'Peace in our time' speech. Etc.
Israel is no longer fighting heavily financed terrorists to save itself. This is about saving the West, and our leader leaders, who take for granted and enjoy all the benefits and privileges it has awarded them, would rather bask in virtue signals.
Why wouldn't any sane non-suicidal person be pro-Israel? You only have to read Hamas' "in their own words" to see that they're not your friends, and that your belief in the Melanin Meter foreign policy doctrine won't save you. Hamas doesn't discriminate on basis of skin color; they're equal-opportunity killers. The Useful Idiots never ask why the Arab world doesn't help Gazans. It's because they don't want their countries full of Hamas-supporters! The “consensus [of Arab nations regarding Palestine]… recognizes Israel and wants…negotiations with it, but [Hamas] is not ready to give up its support for violence…” Egyptian Foreign Minister S. Shoukry
*International law hasn't escaped the pathocratic language police's moronizing of all W. institutions, so instead of “war” we now have the euphemism “armed conflict.” However, as per international law and the Geneva Convention, there is no war between Hamas and Israel. War is preceded by the "formal act of a state's legitimate government declaring hostile military activity against that of another state." Terrorists "gliding" into a country, murdering 1,200 citizens of said country and kidnapping another 253 is not a war declaration under international law. It's a terrorist attack. https://irislee.substack.com/p/terrorists-and-both-sideism
Israel may be in a long-term losing war with Iran and its web of Islamist allies, but what alternatives does it have against a relentless adversary that seeks not just political dominance of the region but the annihilation of Israel. The US and the West fool themselves into believing there is a peaceful solution to the situation and fail to realize the end game of Iran is the defeat the US and the West. The only effective solution is to side with Israel and aid it in defeating Iran and its Islamist minions. An unconditional statement of support for Israel by the Biden administration would be the most effective step the US could make now.
Trump had Iran on the ropes and sidelined the malicious Palestinians. It can be done again. We cannot let Democrats hold power, it’s to dangerous.
Seems like Iran is slowly moving towards a different goal- exhaust Western support for Israel, isolate it, and then make their move. They know the U.S. has no stomach and maybe not enough capacity today for a true kinetic war; they are correct that the U.S. population doesn’t want to get involved in direct action in the Middle East or go to war on behalf of Israel. So, drag out a multi-front proxy war as described in this article but in the hopes of getting the world increasing mad at, or sick of, Israel, while not directly provoking the U.S. They’re playing the long game in hopes of getting the U.S. and to a lesser degree the UK and Germany to stop backing Israel. And they seem to be succeeding.
Not that long ago The United States was the strongest, most powerful Country in the world- economically and militarily.
Under Biden, that reputation has been destroyed.
Of course Iran is going to take advantage of this reality.
Of course Russia is going to take advantage of this reality.
THAT'S the story.
No need for anymore words. No need for anymore analysis.
Not so fast. Iran has a collapsing birth rate. Increasing secularization. Encroaching desert. And all of the Shia Muslim dictatorships want nothing to do with Muslim Brotherhood / Hamas Gazans, especially Jordan and Egypt -- Let Israel deal with them.
The best day-to-day narrative of what's going on the ground is Amir Tsafati's Telegraph channel IMO. https://t.me/s/beholdisraelchannel . Keep things in perspective. Israel is fighting the most humane, sophisticated urban war in history against a genocidal enemy.
We, on the other hand, have lost our way both culturally and politically IMO.
It is certainly reasonable to be concerned about Iran. I don’t think its an over reaction to say this is the closest the world has ever been to WWIII. Russia- Ukraine, Israel-Iran, add in North and South Korea or China and Taiwan and we’re there.
I don’t think it all stacks up in favor of Iran. Look at what happened with Desert Storm. Saddam had an army of nearly a million soldiers and got thrashed almost single handedly by our air force. That was the opinion of an Army Vet I worked with who was there. He said they just rolled up to Baghdad and saw nothing but corpses along the way. If the United States wakes up the only real threat Israel faces is a prolonged insurgency by Iranian proxies. We still have the technology edge that we did back then.
I think its reasonable to say the Iron Dome has harmed Israel in a certain way. If every Hamas rocket killed someone, nobody would be questioning Israel. But they don’t. So you get people like Trevor Noah, when he was on the daily show, saying that Hamas trying to bomb Israel was like his little brother trying to hit him growing up.
Anyway I don’t see the authors as off base but it sounds a bit pessimistic to me.
I keep coming back to the same question. Why is the US acting like we are a tribute paying state to the Iranians and the Chinese? We, and our allies, have nothing to gain from it. We are the world's superpower and we act like the Iranians and the Chinese are in charge. So demeaning and frustrating, our leaders clearly haven't read history.
What country has benefited or what people have benefited from Iranian policies? Seems only weapons dealers and the tyrants at the top. The Iranian people are poorer, the countries Iran has toppled are terrorists havens and not governed for the benefit of the people. Just a bunch of Corrupted Godless thugs.
I will add a few more scenarios to the realist assessment of the Middle East conflict. One is that Donald Trump wins and the Abraham Accords are strengthened by Saudi Arabia officially joining them. I hear also rumblings of “day after” Gaza solutions to include multi Arab security forces policing the area. And one scenario is unfortunately a doomsday “elephant in the room” - Islam preaches martyrdom. That’s not good with possession of nuclear weapons and means to deliver them.
Would love an article on why Biden and Blinken have unlocked billions in frozen assets for Iran.
So they would stop attacking US assets in Iraq?
Blinken has climbed so far up his Iran-can-be-appeased tree that even if he realizes it’s wrong he can’t back down.
One thing Iran hasn't experienced, is a flat out loss among its proxies.
In Yemen, the houthi won. In Lebanon, hezbollah largely does whatever it wants. They've also won.
In Iraq, Iran holds substantial influence and they dominate Syria. Even in Ukraine, they've played a role.
Defeating hamas in Gaza, wiping out their entire leadership and most of hamas' people, would be a win in what's been a string of losses and draws for US and US allies. Add in the loss in Afghanistan and the mixed bag results in Libya, and you begin to realize just how badly the US needs Israel to win this.
Only winning creates deterrence. Something which hasn't happened in a long time.
"...the still-enduring expectation that America will finally intervene militarily against the Islamic..."
I'm afraid that's a forlorn hope. I'm 54, and Iran has been waging an unrequited war against the US since I was in 4th grade.
Maybe if we send them a few more billion they'll begin to warm up to us.