Take the current war with Hamas and multiply it by ten. That’s what war with Hezbollah would look like. And Israelis are not asking if it will begin, but when.
As much as I value and respect Matti Friedman’s reporting and analysis, his forecasting of even graver engagements and outcomes against Hezbollah in the North made me feel physically ill and scared, not just for Israel (though they will shoulder the most risk and suffer the most) but for the future of civilization. The most frightening aspect is how many young people in the West view these existential conflicts through a completely different (warped?) lens and openly advocate for the destruction of the only democracy and open society in the Middle East. We are all in for a rude awakening.
The Archbishop of Lebanon said that Lebanon is not going to be sacrificed to a death cult. Lebanon is terrified. They know war is coming and the Lebanese People are going to be decimated. If they can stop Hezbollah they need to find a way to do it now.
Another way to stop the coming war with Hezbollah. Destroy the Mullahs in Iran. Without them there is no Hezbollah (or Houthis, or Hamas to be exact).
But in order to do this you need to have a US government with a backbone. Not one that employs the likes of a Malley and his cronies.
We can blame this all on Obama and Biden (even though they have been the worst at kissing the Mullahs' rings) but every US administration tried to placate the Mullahs thinking to bring them into the global population. The ignorance of the CIA, Foggy Bottom and the entire political class about what the Mullahs actually want is breathtaking. They refused, as they do with China, to understand that they are not like us and do not want the same things as we do. Religious ,or political, zealotry is real. It drives a large section of the world that wishes to do those of us in the West harm.
Hopefully when Washington wakes up from its fever dream of placating the Mullahs it will not be too late for any of us.
Israel has a perhaps insoluble problem. The are dealing with an enemy mentally living in the second millennium BC. Read the chapter Hama Rules in Thomas Friedman's book, From Beirut to Jerusalem to BEGIN to develop an understanding. You never will fully understand, because the mindset is totally foreign to Westerners.
"...a United Nations peacekeeping force has been ineffectual." Everything the UN does is ineffectual. Waiting for the UN to help solve this or any other world problem is like waiting for Godot. The US should get out of the UN and get the UN out of the US.
Israel thought it was a normal country in a normal situation. But it isn't. It is a country that millions of people world wide want to see destroyed and surrounded by barbaric enemies who can't be reasoned with. Israel needs to fight to win and then to deter. REALLY deter. Israel is not the United States and cannot afford to make ruinous errors. October 7 had best be the last one.
Excellent piece. Sadly we were visiting friends in Shlomi and took a beautiful hike nearby. Suddenly we heard a boom and then rocket fire, not something most Americans have any experience with. We ran for shelter w friends. Little did we understand then (this was April of this year) what those rockets from the north foreshadowed.
Matti Friedman is helping to bring this critical issue to the fore- it is the hugely overshadowing issue compared with Hamas. While I agree and feel the instinctual fear of this scenario, it makes me take the next step as to what can I as an individual do to help bring the opinion of those around me to truth and humanity. Ultimately that is what G-d put us here for and we can each do our tiny part in whatever way we can. We may feel helpless but many small acts can make all the difference.
Bring it on. I'd like to leave this life with good vs evil settled once and for all. Let's send a couple dozen of our B52 bombers to our base in Iraq and enough bombs to do the job right. Ooops, Biden wants to give our base away that we spilled plenty of American blood for...
When Lebanon is mentioned it reminds me a scholar I used to hold in high esteem. That is Nasim Taleb author of The Black Swan, Fooled By Randomness and many others. I’ll still read his books because I don’t believe in cancel culture. But he mostly certainly shares the all too common middle eastern hatred of Israel.
I think it proves again that intelligence isn’t a great protection against acquiring horrendous beliefs. I see intelligence as a tool, much like the CPU on a computer. It holds zero bearing on if the tool will be used for good or bad.
You can build a house with a hammer or you can smash someone over the head with it. You could write medical software to save lives on a computer, or make ransomware to rob people.
And in future wars the US gets involved with, they will be directed by woke trans generals and fought by high school drop outs. The saviors of the nation will be the armed citizen. But as many point out, the spiraling out of control to becoming a burnt cinder will be the fate of this world.
Israel's political objective has generally been defeat the aggressor and create deterrence. The calculus has changed with the 07-OCT massacre. Israeli civilians will not return to the south or north with terrorists remaining on the border. Deterrence is insufficient.
With Hezbollah being a more powerful and experienced adversary, also embedded within civilian populations, I highly doubt we will see Israel take a surgical approach as taken in Gaza, where civilian-combatant ratio in Gaza is likely somewhere around 1.8:1.
There will be significant loss of Lebanese civilian life with such a conflict. If I were a Lebanese civilian living south of the Litani River I would have already left the area. There is no reason to remain with a high likelihood of war.
Facts:
Diplomacy has proved meaningless.
The UN Security Council is toothless and anti-Israel and anti-US.
How do you negotiate with someone who wants you dead?
Iran will soon have an atomic bomb.
Antisemitism is deeply rooted in the US Progressive movement.
Unknowns:
Will we come to the aid of Israel?
Will Europe come to the aid of Israel and/or the US?
How many enemy combatants have crossed the southern US border waiting to be activated?
How far has our military degraded?
How many Americans understand just how serious this situation is?
Are we Europe after Munich 1938?
Who are our friends and who are our enemies?
How far have our schools emasculated/neutralized our youth?
How far has our media eroded our will as a nation?
How far has our national will eroded since 9/11?
Not looking good.Heaven help us. Can we help ourselves?
As much as I value and respect Matti Friedman’s reporting and analysis, his forecasting of even graver engagements and outcomes against Hezbollah in the North made me feel physically ill and scared, not just for Israel (though they will shoulder the most risk and suffer the most) but for the future of civilization. The most frightening aspect is how many young people in the West view these existential conflicts through a completely different (warped?) lens and openly advocate for the destruction of the only democracy and open society in the Middle East. We are all in for a rude awakening.
The Archbishop of Lebanon said that Lebanon is not going to be sacrificed to a death cult. Lebanon is terrified. They know war is coming and the Lebanese People are going to be decimated. If they can stop Hezbollah they need to find a way to do it now.
Another way to stop the coming war with Hezbollah. Destroy the Mullahs in Iran. Without them there is no Hezbollah (or Houthis, or Hamas to be exact).
But in order to do this you need to have a US government with a backbone. Not one that employs the likes of a Malley and his cronies.
We can blame this all on Obama and Biden (even though they have been the worst at kissing the Mullahs' rings) but every US administration tried to placate the Mullahs thinking to bring them into the global population. The ignorance of the CIA, Foggy Bottom and the entire political class about what the Mullahs actually want is breathtaking. They refused, as they do with China, to understand that they are not like us and do not want the same things as we do. Religious ,or political, zealotry is real. It drives a large section of the world that wishes to do those of us in the West harm.
Hopefully when Washington wakes up from its fever dream of placating the Mullahs it will not be too late for any of us.
The UN Peacekeeping force in Lebanon is “ineffectual”, now that is a masterpiece of an understatement.
Israel has a perhaps insoluble problem. The are dealing with an enemy mentally living in the second millennium BC. Read the chapter Hama Rules in Thomas Friedman's book, From Beirut to Jerusalem to BEGIN to develop an understanding. You never will fully understand, because the mindset is totally foreign to Westerners.
Why did Obama try so hard to placate the Muslim terrorist states? Was he that naive?
"...a United Nations peacekeeping force has been ineffectual." Everything the UN does is ineffectual. Waiting for the UN to help solve this or any other world problem is like waiting for Godot. The US should get out of the UN and get the UN out of the US.
If you are a Jew and a democrat in the US you are a traitor to your people and to Israel.
Israel thought it was a normal country in a normal situation. But it isn't. It is a country that millions of people world wide want to see destroyed and surrounded by barbaric enemies who can't be reasoned with. Israel needs to fight to win and then to deter. REALLY deter. Israel is not the United States and cannot afford to make ruinous errors. October 7 had best be the last one.
Excellent piece. Sadly we were visiting friends in Shlomi and took a beautiful hike nearby. Suddenly we heard a boom and then rocket fire, not something most Americans have any experience with. We ran for shelter w friends. Little did we understand then (this was April of this year) what those rockets from the north foreshadowed.
Matti Friedman is helping to bring this critical issue to the fore- it is the hugely overshadowing issue compared with Hamas. While I agree and feel the instinctual fear of this scenario, it makes me take the next step as to what can I as an individual do to help bring the opinion of those around me to truth and humanity. Ultimately that is what G-d put us here for and we can each do our tiny part in whatever way we can. We may feel helpless but many small acts can make all the difference.
Gee, perhaps we see the real “open air prison”, which is Israel, thanks to the enemies encircling it.
Bring it on. I'd like to leave this life with good vs evil settled once and for all. Let's send a couple dozen of our B52 bombers to our base in Iraq and enough bombs to do the job right. Ooops, Biden wants to give our base away that we spilled plenty of American blood for...
When Lebanon is mentioned it reminds me a scholar I used to hold in high esteem. That is Nasim Taleb author of The Black Swan, Fooled By Randomness and many others. I’ll still read his books because I don’t believe in cancel culture. But he mostly certainly shares the all too common middle eastern hatred of Israel.
I think it proves again that intelligence isn’t a great protection against acquiring horrendous beliefs. I see intelligence as a tool, much like the CPU on a computer. It holds zero bearing on if the tool will be used for good or bad.
You can build a house with a hammer or you can smash someone over the head with it. You could write medical software to save lives on a computer, or make ransomware to rob people.
And in future wars the US gets involved with, they will be directed by woke trans generals and fought by high school drop outs. The saviors of the nation will be the armed citizen. But as many point out, the spiraling out of control to becoming a burnt cinder will be the fate of this world.
Israel's political objective has generally been defeat the aggressor and create deterrence. The calculus has changed with the 07-OCT massacre. Israeli civilians will not return to the south or north with terrorists remaining on the border. Deterrence is insufficient.
With Hezbollah being a more powerful and experienced adversary, also embedded within civilian populations, I highly doubt we will see Israel take a surgical approach as taken in Gaza, where civilian-combatant ratio in Gaza is likely somewhere around 1.8:1.
There will be significant loss of Lebanese civilian life with such a conflict. If I were a Lebanese civilian living south of the Litani River I would have already left the area. There is no reason to remain with a high likelihood of war.