I'm not sure the abortion issue is running against Kennedy. The majority are for a middle ground where abortion is legal with limits. 15 weeks might be a little soon for most Democrats, but its not far off from the consensus ideas. The lack of popularity of current Covid boosters speaks to a certain open mindedness about vaccines that wasn't there 5 years ago. Kennedy's ideas are much more far ranging than Silver gives him credit for and when the public starts to pay attention they will get the light of day. Whether those ideas gain enough currency to effect an election is still an open question to me.
I know a lot of people (myself included) who are looking to vote 3rd party if the race is Trump vs. Biden again. This could be the best chance for a 3rd party candidate since Perot.
Mr. Silver's calculations here don't seem to tap the vein, as it were. The abortion issue is a middle-ground, or a nuclear option in most voters' minds. Moderating is probably good and works in Kennedy's favor. It's really funny to read Silver say that Kennedy's vaccine skepticism is a negative. His skepticism has borne good fruit, I'd say-and that shows in that most people in the U.S. aren't getting the next vax, and Europe has recommended against it for anyone under 65 or who is immune-compromised in certain situations. But most importantly, I think the odds favor the simple truth that Biden will not be the Democratic nominee. That's speculation, sure. But it's looking more and more to be the case.
This is an interesting perspective. One small criticism -- I may be wrong (I don't have all the poll data available that Nate does), but my impression is that this is a bit of a mischaracterization:
> particularly from the suburban, college-educated base that Biden and other Democrats have increasingly come to rely upon.
That's not a stable group to rely upon in 2024. It might have been in 2016. But that's a group that's increasingly split along gender lines and a group that's always been the quickest to politically realign. The suburban educated group is more of the "swing" votes that could propel Biden into office, give RFK his boost, or realign behind Trump if their gas and grocery bills get high enough or crimes pills into their neighborhoods. They're obviously the group Biden/dems are pandering to the hardest right now, because the dems can (mostly) count on black and Hispanic votes. But it's hardly a "base", rather it's the group that needs to be won over.
Biden's "base" seems to be essentially tribalist minority voters, often single-issue or identity-politics-only voters, usually from the inner cities. The "black bloc" seems to be breaking a bit in the polls; black voters are slowly abandoning Biden (91% of black voters supported Biden in 2020, polls point to it being 80-85% now, but still a pretty large margin). Hispanic voters also seem to be slightly tearing on various issues. But I'd still characterize these groups as a much more predictable "always vote blue" than highly educated voters.
Kennedy is definitely a wild card. I moved across to vote for Trump 2 times. Kennedy stands for everything I backed originally as a Democrat. But there's the pull of voting for Trump to make the statement that the people still have a say in their government, no matter how hard the establishment tries to ignore that. The current Democrat behavior is abhorrent and it needs to be eradicated by any means possible. Trump seems to be that means.
Talk of third party voting spoiling the election for whatever side holds the country back from breaking the 2 party strangle hold on our politics. Remember, 2 choices is only one more choice than you get in a dictatorship. If we ever want to have a true variety of choices, we need to play the long game and be willing to take a risk on the short-term election outcome.
Someone should write an article about how it could hurt both Trump and Biden because he could win. I you listen to interviews with RFK Jr., Trump, and Biden, He is the only one that seems to be relatively intelligent and reasonable, and honest. People still have over a year to grudgingly accept this reality. And, most importantly, he has the best campaign logo. Just seeing the name Kennedy has a psychological effect.
It doesn't hurt Biden because Democrats are fanatics now who vote party line more so than the GOP. However, it doesn't really hurt Trump either since those voters who voted for him in 2020 are likely to vote for him again for the same reasons: to stop the fanatics. The RFK voters are a subset of the Democrats -- call them the Bret Weinstein, Heather Heying, vaccine-skeptical people -- who would never have voted for Trump anyway.
People like Matt Taibbi who didn't vote in 2020 because he couldn't vote for either might turn out for RFK, Jr. If you voted for Trump chances are you'll vote for him again. I might have voted for RFK but he refuses to take a firm stand against "Gender Affirming Care" so I cannot vote for him. I will only vote for the candidate who can make the promise to end it for young people.
Kennedy should have just as much of a chance as any candidate, and given what we have gone through over the past few election cycles I believe people are pretty fed up with this two party system. When the party doesn’t even want to allow for a debate between the current democratic candidates, of which there are several, and the president which puts our democratic values in jeopardy. The polls are showing that almost 3/4 of the population DO NOT want this rematch between Trump and Biden. Time for some new ideas because the old ways aren’t cutting it anymore, and we are on the precipice of disaster in this country if we continue down the same path.
This piece reads too much like one from the legacy/mainstream media (never mind how much it cites those outlets). "Endorses conspiracy theories" (easy to believe if you don't read the research he cites); "has views outside the scientific consensus" ("consensus" only because all dissenting views are censored); "doesn’t think it’s realistic to reduce gun violence" (he actually said it's not realistic to believe gun control will reduce gun violence because prescription meds are potentially the bigger culprit); "claimed that Covid vaccines are ethnically targeted” (CONTEXT, Nate - he said the virus disproportionately afflicted some ethnicities more than others); "said the 2004 election was stolen from John Kerry" (voting machine tampering was a huge story in that election, for which a lot of other people were crying foul, as well). When you rely on legacy media for your sources, it's no wonder you come away with distorted views.
I've listened to RFK, Jr. quite a bit and like a lot of what he says. But I'm about 99% likely to vote for the GOP nominee for two reasons: (1) on some issues like affirmative action and climate change, I strongly disagree with Bobby; and (2) no third-party candidate has a decent chance of winning in a country that has two strong, dominant parties. I'm hoping Trump isn't the GOP nominee but I won't hesitate to vote for him if he is.
This heading says all you need to know about this article. The author makes a great effort in this "both sides of the issue" piece, but in the end the reader is no wiser
for reading it. In other words, a "nothing burger"!
Never Trump Republicans voted for Biden last time, while Democrats uncomfortable with Biden hold their nose and vote for him anyway, they would never vote for Trump. Both groups might go for RFK if given the option, which would be a net loss for Biden.
I'm not sure the abortion issue is running against Kennedy. The majority are for a middle ground where abortion is legal with limits. 15 weeks might be a little soon for most Democrats, but its not far off from the consensus ideas. The lack of popularity of current Covid boosters speaks to a certain open mindedness about vaccines that wasn't there 5 years ago. Kennedy's ideas are much more far ranging than Silver gives him credit for and when the public starts to pay attention they will get the light of day. Whether those ideas gain enough currency to effect an election is still an open question to me.
You just can't run a positive RFK article can you Bari. Is it the vaccine issue. Do the research. He's right.
I know a lot of people (myself included) who are looking to vote 3rd party if the race is Trump vs. Biden again. This could be the best chance for a 3rd party candidate since Perot.
Mr. Silver's calculations here don't seem to tap the vein, as it were. The abortion issue is a middle-ground, or a nuclear option in most voters' minds. Moderating is probably good and works in Kennedy's favor. It's really funny to read Silver say that Kennedy's vaccine skepticism is a negative. His skepticism has borne good fruit, I'd say-and that shows in that most people in the U.S. aren't getting the next vax, and Europe has recommended against it for anyone under 65 or who is immune-compromised in certain situations. But most importantly, I think the odds favor the simple truth that Biden will not be the Democratic nominee. That's speculation, sure. But it's looking more and more to be the case.
This is an interesting perspective. One small criticism -- I may be wrong (I don't have all the poll data available that Nate does), but my impression is that this is a bit of a mischaracterization:
> particularly from the suburban, college-educated base that Biden and other Democrats have increasingly come to rely upon.
That's not a stable group to rely upon in 2024. It might have been in 2016. But that's a group that's increasingly split along gender lines and a group that's always been the quickest to politically realign. The suburban educated group is more of the "swing" votes that could propel Biden into office, give RFK his boost, or realign behind Trump if their gas and grocery bills get high enough or crimes pills into their neighborhoods. They're obviously the group Biden/dems are pandering to the hardest right now, because the dems can (mostly) count on black and Hispanic votes. But it's hardly a "base", rather it's the group that needs to be won over.
Biden's "base" seems to be essentially tribalist minority voters, often single-issue or identity-politics-only voters, usually from the inner cities. The "black bloc" seems to be breaking a bit in the polls; black voters are slowly abandoning Biden (91% of black voters supported Biden in 2020, polls point to it being 80-85% now, but still a pretty large margin). Hispanic voters also seem to be slightly tearing on various issues. But I'd still characterize these groups as a much more predictable "always vote blue" than highly educated voters.
Kennedy is definitely a wild card. I moved across to vote for Trump 2 times. Kennedy stands for everything I backed originally as a Democrat. But there's the pull of voting for Trump to make the statement that the people still have a say in their government, no matter how hard the establishment tries to ignore that. The current Democrat behavior is abhorrent and it needs to be eradicated by any means possible. Trump seems to be that means.
Talk of third party voting spoiling the election for whatever side holds the country back from breaking the 2 party strangle hold on our politics. Remember, 2 choices is only one more choice than you get in a dictatorship. If we ever want to have a true variety of choices, we need to play the long game and be willing to take a risk on the short-term election outcome.
Someone should write an article about how it could hurt both Trump and Biden because he could win. I you listen to interviews with RFK Jr., Trump, and Biden, He is the only one that seems to be relatively intelligent and reasonable, and honest. People still have over a year to grudgingly accept this reality. And, most importantly, he has the best campaign logo. Just seeing the name Kennedy has a psychological effect.
It doesn't hurt Biden because Democrats are fanatics now who vote party line more so than the GOP. However, it doesn't really hurt Trump either since those voters who voted for him in 2020 are likely to vote for him again for the same reasons: to stop the fanatics. The RFK voters are a subset of the Democrats -- call them the Bret Weinstein, Heather Heying, vaccine-skeptical people -- who would never have voted for Trump anyway.
People like Matt Taibbi who didn't vote in 2020 because he couldn't vote for either might turn out for RFK, Jr. If you voted for Trump chances are you'll vote for him again. I might have voted for RFK but he refuses to take a firm stand against "Gender Affirming Care" so I cannot vote for him. I will only vote for the candidate who can make the promise to end it for young people.
Kennedy should have just as much of a chance as any candidate, and given what we have gone through over the past few election cycles I believe people are pretty fed up with this two party system. When the party doesn’t even want to allow for a debate between the current democratic candidates, of which there are several, and the president which puts our democratic values in jeopardy. The polls are showing that almost 3/4 of the population DO NOT want this rematch between Trump and Biden. Time for some new ideas because the old ways aren’t cutting it anymore, and we are on the precipice of disaster in this country if we continue down the same path.
Watching Nate Silver is reminiscent of early Tulsi Gabbard.
One is certain that in the near future the light bulb will switch on.
This piece reads too much like one from the legacy/mainstream media (never mind how much it cites those outlets). "Endorses conspiracy theories" (easy to believe if you don't read the research he cites); "has views outside the scientific consensus" ("consensus" only because all dissenting views are censored); "doesn’t think it’s realistic to reduce gun violence" (he actually said it's not realistic to believe gun control will reduce gun violence because prescription meds are potentially the bigger culprit); "claimed that Covid vaccines are ethnically targeted” (CONTEXT, Nate - he said the virus disproportionately afflicted some ethnicities more than others); "said the 2004 election was stolen from John Kerry" (voting machine tampering was a huge story in that election, for which a lot of other people were crying foul, as well). When you rely on legacy media for your sources, it's no wonder you come away with distorted views.
I've listened to RFK, Jr. quite a bit and like a lot of what he says. But I'm about 99% likely to vote for the GOP nominee for two reasons: (1) on some issues like affirmative action and climate change, I strongly disagree with Bobby; and (2) no third-party candidate has a decent chance of winning in a country that has two strong, dominant parties. I'm hoping Trump isn't the GOP nominee but I won't hesitate to vote for him if he is.
"Still, Kennedy’s Effects Are Hard to Predict"
This heading says all you need to know about this article. The author makes a great effort in this "both sides of the issue" piece, but in the end the reader is no wiser
for reading it. In other words, a "nothing burger"!
Call me stuffy, but I won;t vote for anyone that wears shoes without socks. Yecchh!
Never Trump Republicans voted for Biden last time, while Democrats uncomfortable with Biden hold their nose and vote for him anyway, they would never vote for Trump. Both groups might go for RFK if given the option, which would be a net loss for Biden.